December 2024 - As we await the January change in administration, we first wanted to let you know that your team at www.theProGunDemocrat.com is going to be taking some time off. Not only do we have the holidays coming up, but Alex is renovating and moving into a new house, Joe is managing a major project at work, and T.D. is starting a new job.

So while we still will be monitoring the transition in Washington and may add an article or two as time allows, don't expect too much from us until perhaps the spring. We'll still be checking email, though, so feel free to keep up your correspondence, but don't take it personally if we're a bit slow in responding.

As for some expectations on the second Trump term in office, here are a few thoughts and some things we'll be looking out for (in alphabetical order):

Cabinet and White House Staff: Unlike his first term, in which Mr. Trump relied on many mainstream conservatives to serve in his administration, beware this time around. We're pretty sure Mr. Trump is going to nominate and surround himself with "yes" men and "yes" women, whose loyalty will not be to the Constitution but, rather, to Mr. Trump.

Based on the people Mr. Trump was surrounding himself with at the end of his first term, we also expect most of these people will not be particularly qualified (if at all, in some cases) to hold those positions. Don't forget that most people qualified to serve in government not only know to, but always will, put the Constitution first. (Also don't forget that an amazingly large number of first-term Trump appointees, who worked with Mr. Trump up close and personally, refused to endorse him in 2024. See our article "Trump Continues to Lose Support from his First White House Team, Including Mike Pence") for a list of those patriotic Americans and their comments regarding Mr. Trump.)

Executive Power: Late in his first term, and again during this year's campaign, Mr. Trump gave every indication that he will try to consolidate more power within the Executive Branch, in an attempt to give himself more authority to make unilateral decisions not granted him by the Constitution. In 1776 we revolted against a King who had that kind of power and our Founding Fathers set up our separation of powers to guard against this very thing from happening in our democratic Republic. We trust that the Congress and the Courts will be vigilant and not let Mr. Trump get away with what we expect to be an unlawful power grab.

Inflation: Campaigning during his two-year run for the White House, Mr. Trump blamed the worldwide post-Covid inflation on President Biden and said that inflation wouldn't have happened if Mr. Trump had continued in office back in 2020. (Without, of course, explaining the why or the how.) Consequently, virtually every Trump voter we talked to over the past year said Mr. Trump would bring down prices if re-elected.

Mr. Trump is smart enough to know, though, that the worldwide inflation following the Covid lockdowns was inevitable, that the Federal Reserve (plus the Biden fiscal policy) has brought down inflation while keeping job growth strong, and that Mr. Trump will not be able to bring down prices unless the country goes into a recession. Therefore, watch Mr. Trump try and distract you from inflation by trying to change the subject and push the news media to focus on other issues.

Project 2025: Despite having said during the campaign that he wasn't familiar with Project 2025, we expect Mr. Trump to use it as a blueprint for reducing government programs and services so he can renew and expand his 2017 tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires. He won't be able to find enough savings to pay for those tax cuts, though. Remember, it's the Bush Jr. and Trump tax cuts for the rich and powerful that are the main reasons we have such a large federal debt today.

Ukraine: For whatever reason, Mr. Trump can't say no to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, so we fear for the future of Ukraine. Following the Russian invasion of their country, the people of Ukraine have faced tremendous hardship and waged a valiant struggle against a superior military foe. The world stands with Ukraine but, for some reason having to do with Mr. Putin, we fear Mr. Trump will not.

Energy: Under President Biden, the U.S. is producing record amounts of oil while transitioning toward the use of more sustainable energy sources. For some unexplained reason, though, Mr. Trump thinks our energy usage should be dependent only on fossil fuels and we expect him to cut back your tax credits for solar, thermal, EV's, etc. (again, so he can help pay for his tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires) and focus only on the expansion of oil and gas production.

Although Mr. Trump would have you believe this expanded drilling will result in lower oil and gas prices, he's forgetting one economic reality: lower gas and oil prices will then tend to discourage more production. Remember when OPEC drove down oil prices about a decade ago and put many of our fracking companies out of business because prices were too low? (Also see our article, "Oil Execs Blame Wall Street for High Gas Prices, They Don't Blame Biden") , which discussed the thinking of major oil producers on the topic of oil production and prices.)

Tariffs: Selective tariffs can be a useful economic tool, one that we (along with many other Democrats) have supported for years. But if Mr. Trump's ham-handed approach to tariffs (utilizing a simplistic across the board approach, particularly against our allies and close trading partners) is pursued, we expect both our allies and the financial markets to push back, and we will see higher inflation, lower economic growth, and lower stock prices. Consequently, unless he is just too stubborn, we hope Mr. Trump listens to the advice of America's business leaders and moves away from the extreme rhetoric he used when discussing tariffs during the campaign.

Let's hope we are wrong about most of these predictions, and perhaps we will be, but we're not betting on it. Stay tuned.

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