November 8, 2017 - In the first election cycle since Donald Trump was elected resident, Democrats did better than expected across the country, leaving Republican political strategists somewhat confused and nervous regarding their approach for the 2018 mid-terms. Here's a recap of yesterday's results, as of this morning:

Virginia

The Commonwealth of Virginia produced the most surprising results last night, with Lt. Governor Ralph Northam winning his race for Governor by a comfortable nine point margin over Republican Ed Gillespie. As late as last week, polls were showing the race to be neck and neck, with some even having Mr. Gillespie ahead.

(Image from ralphnortham.com)

Usually a more establishment Republican, Mr. Gillespie had begun using Trump-like messaging and rhetoric in recent weeks (anti-immigration, pro-Confederate monuments, distortions about Northam's positions, etc.), and polling had been indicating that the race was tightening. So much so that we read Mr. Trump's master of divisive politics, Steve Bannon, went so far as to proclaim over this past weekend that, based on the candidate's adoption of Trumpian positions, Mr. Gillespie was going to win and the Democrats had better watch out.

Unfortunately for Mr. Gillespie and Mr. Bannon, voters did not respond to this divisive strategy and ended up giving Mr. Northam, a pediatric neurologist, graduate of the Virginia Military Institute, and military veteran, a larger than expected victory.

Of course, per his usual "I am never to blame" rhetoric, Mr. Trump immediately distanced himself from the Gillespie defeat, issuing the following tweet: "Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for". What this misleading tweet ignored was that Mr. Gillespie came within 1% of winning the 2014 Virginia Senate race when he ran as an establishment Republican. This year, after embracing a Trump-style campaign and set of issues, he lost by almost double digits.

An even bigger surprise occurred in the Virginia House of Delegates races. Going into the election, Republican's held an almost two-to-one majority of the House seats, 66-34. At the time of this writing, and with some recounts still to take place, Democrats had picked up 15 seats to narrow the GOP majority to just 51-49. And most analysts agree that, had the GOP not so effectively gerrymandered House districts after the 2010 census, the Democrats would enjoy a comfortable majority.

New Jersey

In New Jersey, term-limited Governor Chris Christie (whose 15% approval rating is a record low for any Governor in any state since these surveys began taking place), will be replaced by Democrat Phil Murphy. Mr. Murphy defeated Governor Christie's Lt. Governor, Kim Guadagno, by a 13 point margin, 55.4% to 42.5%.

(Image from murphy4nj.com)

Democrats also retained control in both of New Jersey's legislative chambers, picking up one seat in the state Assembly and one in the state Senate, although a number of races remain too close to call at this time.

During the campaign, Mr. Murphy had expressed interest in legislation to decriminalize the use of marijuana for recreational purposes, seeing the estimated $300 million in tax revenue this could raise as a solution to the state's funding needs for education and state pensions. It will be interesting to see whether the growing list of states that have legalized marijuana will soon include New Jersey.

Maine

Maine's electorate dealt Trump-like Governor Paul LaPage a defeat when they passed the ballot initiative labeled Question 2. By a margin of 59% to 41% (with some districts still to be reported), this vote will expand Medicaid in the state, providing roughly 70,000 Citizens with access to health care. It should be noted that measures passed via referendum are not subject to a veto by the Governor. A bi-partisan majority in Maine's state legislature had passed similar legislation on five occasions, only to have it vetoed by Mr. LaPage.

Georgia, New Hampshire, Washington

Elsewhere around the country, a handful of special elections resulted in Democrats flipping five more seats in state legislatures without losing any of their own seats. Three of these occurred in Georgia, one in New Hampshire, and one in the state of Washington. The latter election, held in suburban Seattle following the death of Republican Senator Andy Hill, saw Democrat Manka Dhingra defeat Republican Jinyoung Lee Englund and gives the Democrats a majority in the Washington State Senate. The Democrats now hold the majority in both houses of the Washington state legislature.

Home About Us Contact Us